Markets opened Tuesday with a cautious tone as investors continued to weigh political risks in the United States against strong momentum in equities and commodities. The prospect of a government shutdown at the end of September remained a key concern, adding uncertainty to an already data-heavy week. The U.S. dollar stayed under pressure, gold traded near record highs on safe-haven demand, oil prices struggled for direction, and cryptocurrencies moved sideways after last week’s volatility. With traders awaiting fresh inflation figures and updates from Washington, sentiment on Tuesday leaned toward risk aversion.

Key Data Releases to Watch Today

• Germany Flash Manufacturing PMI: previous 50.0, forecast 48.8
• Germany Flash Services PMI: previous 49.5, forecast 49.3
• France Flash Manufacturing PMI: previous 50.2, forecast 50.4
• France Flash Services PMI: previous 49.7, forecast 49.8
• Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI: previous 50.7, forecast 50.7
• Eurozone Flash Services PMI: previous 50.6, forecast 50.5
• U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI: previous 51.8, forecast 53.0
• U.S. Flash Services PMI: previous 55.7, forecast 55.4
• U.S. Existing Home Sales (August): previous 4.01 million, forecast 3.92 million

EUR/USD

The euro traded with a firmer tone on Tuesday as traders looked to PMI data from Germany, France, and the wider Eurozone. A slowdown in services could weigh on the single currency, while resilient manufacturing numbers may provide some support. The U.S. dollar remains vulnerable due to political uncertainty surrounding the potential government shutdown, though strong PMI data from the U.S. could shift momentum back in favor of the greenback.

The currency pair is trading above the SMA50 on the hourly chart. Taking into consideration the fears of the US shutdown, I expect it to continue the uptrend above the moving average. Buy zones for today are 1.1820-1.1830 and another will be at the SMA50 if EUR/USD makes a correction to this dynamic support. Should EUR/USD break below the SMA50, traders can look for short positions after confirmation.

Gold

Gold remained in demand as safe-haven flows picked up, driven by concerns about U.S. political gridlock and uncertainty in global growth. PMI data across Europe and the U.S. will be critical for gold traders, as weaker economic momentum would typically boost demand for defensive assets. If U.S. services PMI comes in stronger than expected, gold could face temporary headwinds, but the overall outlook remains supported by risk aversion.

Gold is trading above the SMA50 and made a significant upside yesterday. Buy zones are at 3,760-3,770 and close to the SMA50 in case of a downside correction. Also, if XAU/USD breaks below the SMA50 with confirmation, short selling wil be available.

WTI Crude Oil

Crude oil traded sideways on Tuesday as traders balanced supply risks with demand concerns. Flash PMI data from Europe and the U.S. will be important for gauging industrial activity and energy consumption trends. Weak data could reinforce worries about slowing demand, while upbeat figures may offer crude some short-term support. Additionally, attention remains on U.S. home sales and inventory dynamics, which indirectly reflect broader economic activity.

Crude oil is trading below the SMA50 on the houly chart. Sell zones are at 61.40-61.30 and close to the SMA50 in case of an upside correction. If WTI breaks above the moving average with confirmation, I would buy.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin consolidated within a narrow range after recent volatility. Traders are watching today’s PMI prints to see whether global economic momentum can sustain risk assets or if renewed risk aversion pushes investors back toward safe havens. Stronger-than-expected U.S. data could cap upside momentum in crypto, while weak figures may encourage another wave of buying.

Bitcoin is trading below the SMA50. I would sell below 111,200 and if BTC/USD reaches the SMA50 with a reversal candlestick signal. Also, if it breaks above, I would buy in case of a confirmation.

Ethereum

Ethereum followed Bitcoin’s cautious trajectory, with sideways trading dominating Tuesday’s session. Institutional inflows remain a supportive factor, but broader sentiment is shaped by U.S. political risks and the day’s economic indicators. The release of services and manufacturing PMI data, along with U.S. housing figures, will play a role in setting the short-term direction.

Ethereum is trading below the SMA50. Sell positions will be avalable below 4,100. Also, I would sell close to the SMA50 after a reversal signal. In case of a breakout with confirmation, I would buy.