Markets remain cautious as the U.S. dollar stays under pressure after weak labor signals earlier this week, while gold is supported by safe-haven demand. With the U.S. government shutdown limiting official data releases, traders are focusing on high-impact indicators and central bank commentary for policy direction.

Key Data Releases to Watch Today

The most important releases today (via ForexFactory) are:

• Eurozone Unemployment Rate: Previous: 6.2% | Forecast: 6.2%
• USD Unemployment Claims: Previous: 218K | Forecast: 225K
• USD Factory Orders (Aug, m/m): Previous: –1.3% | Forecast: +1.4%

These figures will help shape sentiment around European labor market resilience and U.S. employment and manufacturing conditions. Together, they carry weight for the next policy moves from both the ECB and the Federal Reserve.

EUR/USD

The euro trades steady against the dollar, supported by stable labor conditions in the eurozone. In the U.S., jobless claims will be a key test of whether labor market softness is deepening, with potential implications for Fed policy.

EUR/USD is trading right below the SMA50 with two possible scenarios here. In case of a breakout with confirmation, I will buy targeting 1.1780-1.1800. If there is any reversal pattern like hanging man or shooting star, I will sell targeting 1.1660.

Gold

Gold remains in demand as investors seek safety amid dollar weakness and fiscal uncertainty. Today’s U.S. releases could either reinforce or challenge the current bullish sentiment if they show signs of economic strength.

Gold stays above the SMA50 on the hourly chart and I expect it to move higher. In general, gold is targeting 3,900 now and if the upside continues, I will hold my positions. In case of the downside breakout, you can sell below the SMA50.

WTI Crude Oil

Oil trades cautiously as investors monitor U.S. factory orders for signals on industrial demand. Any stronger-than-expected rebound in orders could lend temporary support, while weaker numbers would reinforce concerns about consumption.

Oil is trading below the SMA50 on the hourly chart with two possible scenarios today. Watch for reversal signals below the SMA50 to sell. In case of an upside breakout the buy zone will be at 62.50-62.60

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to hover near local highs, supported by weaker dollar sentiment and risk-driven flows. However, it remains sensitive to broader macro conditions and Fed commentary.

Bitcoin is trading above the SMA50 on the hourly chart confirming the bullish bias. The buy zone now is at 119,800-120,000. Also, in case of rejections from the SMA50, traders can also buy the cryptocurrency. If a downside breakout takes place, you can sell below the SMA50.

Ethereum

Ethereum follows the broader crypto trend, moving in tandem with Bitcoin and overall risk appetite, with no independent drivers in play.

Ethereum is trading above the SMA50 confirming the bullish market sentiment. The buy zone is at 4,400-4,420. In case of a rejection from the SMA50, I would also buy. If a downside breakout occurs, I would sell it below the SMA50.