Markets opened the week cautiously as investors focused on central bank speeches and economic sentiment data for direction. The U.S. dollar remains weak, pressured by ongoing fiscal uncertainty and reduced expectations for aggressive rate moves from the Federal Reserve. Gold stays supported by safe-haven demand, while oil trades softer amid concerns about slowing industrial activity.

Key Data Releases to Watch Today

• • CHF Unemployment Rate: Previous: 2.9% | Forecast: 2.9%
  • EUR Sentix Investor Confidence: Previous: –9.2 | Forecast: –7.5
  • GBP Construction PMI: Previous: 45.5 | Forecast: 46.1
  • EUR Retail Sales (m/m): Previous: –0.5% | Forecast: +0.1%
  • ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • BOE Gov Bailey Speech
  • Fed’s Jefferson Speech

These events will guide sentiment across the major currencies and commodities as traders look for hints of monetary policy direction ahead of U.S. inflation data later this week.

EUR/USD

The euro remains stable against the dollar as investors await key eurozone data. Sentix confidence and retail sales reports could confirm improving sentiment in the region, while ECB President Lagarde’s comments are expected to provide clues on the bank’s next policy steps. The tone of her speech will likely define the euro’s direction for the rest of the day.

EUR/USD is trading just below the SMA50 on the hourly chart. I would wait for a confirmed reversal or a breakout to place a trade. The closest support level below the SMA50 is 1.1710-1.1700. As the resistance above the SMA50, the closest area is at 1.1750-1.1760.

Gold

Gold remains well-supported near recent highs as uncertainty in global markets sustains demand for safe assets. Investors are watching Fed member Jefferson’s speech for potential policy hints. If the message leans dovish, gold could remain in favor, while any sign of rate tightening may temper enthusiasm temporarily.

Gold continues its upside on Monday after breaking above 3,900. Buying now is a good solution, but I would wait for a downside correction beffore entering the market. If gold hits the SMA50 on the hourly chart, traders should check for a reversal or a breakout for further action. In general, I expect gold to reach 4,000 in the near term.

WTI Crude Oil

Oil trades softer as traders weigh global demand concerns against potential supply constraints. The market remains attentive to upcoming OPEC+ comments and U.S. data later this week. For now, the cautious sentiment across risk assets is limiting upward momentum in crude prices.

Crude Oil managed to break above the SMA50 on the hourly chart, which opens some targets above. I would wait for a downside correction to the SMA50 beffore entering the market. Check for reversals there or a confirmed downside breakout.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin stays near recent highs as investors continue to favor risk assets with limited exposure to fiat volatility. The broader crypto market remains quiet, with price action mainly influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and shifts in the dollar’s performance.

Bitcoin is trading right above the SMA50 on the hourly chart. The most probable scenario now is testing of the SMA50 before the direction will be defined. Check for reversal patterns there or for the confirmed breakout.

Ethereum

Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin’s behavior, showing stability as broader market conditions remain uncertain. Institutional interest continues to support the asset, but traders stay cautious ahead of global economic data and central bank communications that could impact liquidity flows across risk markets.

Ethereum demonstrates the same dynamics right above the SMA50. I would wait for a downside correction and check ETH/USD performance close to the SMA50 before making further decisions.