Markets opened the day with a cautious tone, as traders focus on speeches from central bank officials and upcoming U.S. economic data. The U.S. dollar is showing renewed strength, supported by safe-haven demand and ongoing uncertainty over the U.S. government’s fiscal situation. In Europe, investor sentiment is improving slightly, while in the U.K., inflationary concerns remain in the spotlight.
Oil trades lower as global growth concerns persist, while gold stays supported amid risk-off flows. Equities are mixed, with some sectors benefiting from rotation into defensives and commodities.
Key Data Releases to Watch Today
- USD Initial Jobless Claims: Previous: 218K | Forecast: 227K
- USD Continuing Jobless Claims
- USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM): Previous: -0.2% | Forecast: -0.2%
- Fed Chair Powell Speech
- Fed Governor Bowman Speech
- BOE MPC Member Mann Speech
These events will drive sentiment across major currencies and commodities, with particular focus on Powell’s remarks as markets search for clues on the future path of interest rates.
EUR/USD
The euro holds steady against the dollar, with some support coming from improved sentiment data in the eurozone. However, the overall economic picture remains fragile, and investors are cautious ahead of upcoming ECB commentary. The tone of any remarks from policymakers today may influence the euro’s direction for the rest of the week.
The currency pair reched the SMA50 on the hourly chart from where there are two main scenarios. First, a reversal and further downside if there is any reversal Japanese candlestick pattern. Second, a breakout with confirmation with the first target at 1.1780.
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Gold
Gold remains supported by continued geopolitical tension and uncertainty in the global economic outlook. As traders await speeches from several Fed officials, any shift toward a dovish tone could increase demand for safe-haven assets. Gold continues to benefit from its status as a hedge in uncertain times.
Gold set a new high this week and is trading above 4,000 currently. It may either continue its upside after breaking above 4,060 or move so the SMA50 on the hourly chart. If the second scenario develops, check for reversal patterns there or wait for a breakout with confirmation.
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WTI Crude Oil
Oil trades lower as markets digest a mix of slowing industrial activity and uncertain demand projections. A temporary ceasefire in the Middle East has slightly reduced geopolitical risk, but supply concerns remain. Traders are watching closely for any new statements from OPEC+ or U.S. inventory trends later in the week.
Oil resumed its upside and is targeting 62,40 now. The upside scenario will develop if the precious metal breaks above this level. If it moves towards the SMA50 on the hourly chart, then check for reversal patterns or confirmed breakout.
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Bitcoin
Bitcoin stays near recent highs, benefiting from its appeal as an alternative to traditional fiat currencies. While broader crypto momentum remains muted, macroeconomic uncertainty continues to support digital assets. Investor sentiment remains cautious but constructive.
Bitcoin is trading below the SMA50 on the hourly chart and is likely to test it in the near term. In case of any reversal signal, you can sell from there. A confirmed breakout will allow you to buy targeting 124,000 and then 126,000.
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Ethereum
Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin’s behavior, holding steady in quiet conditions. Institutional interest continues to provide a backstop, but traders are looking to macro data and policy commentary for broader direction in risk markets.
Ethereum is trading in the middle of nowhere as how I call this situation. The best way is if ETH/USD reaches the SMA50 from where you can see whether a reversal or a breakout occurs.
