Markets are trading cautiously at the start of the week as renewed U.S.–China tensions add to a complex macro backdrop. Beijing’s latest trade data came in mixed, further highlighting global demand concerns. The U.S. government shutdown continues to delay key economic reports, adding a layer of uncertainty to rate outlooks and investor positioning.

Gold is steady amid elevated risk aversion. Oil is modestly firmer as markets assess Chinese demand. Equities are mixed, with investors focused on geopolitical developments and corporate earnings. Bitcoin and Ethereum remain stable, supported by a lack of macro catalysts and continued institutional interest.

Key Data Releases to Watch Today

• CNY Trade Balance (USD): Previous: $68.36B | Forecast: $70.0B
• CNY Exports YoY: Previous: 7.2% | Forecast: 6.0%
• CNY Imports YoY: Previous: –0.3% | Forecast: 0.5%
• USD Economic Data: Key U.S. releases (e.g., Non-Farm Payrolls, CPI) are delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown
• No major EUR or CAD data scheduled for today

These releases are expected to influence market expectations around global growth, commodity demand, and investor risk appetite, especially in the absence of key U.S. figures.

EUR/USD

The euro trades cautiously against the dollar as traders await clarity from global data and geopolitical headlines. The lack of U.S. macro data limits directional conviction, while European sentiment remains fragile following soft recent figures.

The currency pair moved above the SMA50 on Friday, but is trading in a tight range at the moment. In case of a reversal and SMA50 testing, check for a clear breakout or any candlestick reversal patterns.

Closest support levels: 1,600 (close to the SMA50), 1.1560, 1.1500

Closest resistance levels: 1.1650, 1.1720

Gold

Gold holds steady, supported by geopolitical uncertainty and lack of clarity from central banks amid disrupted U.S. data flow. Investors continue to favor safe-haven assets as they await more reliable signals on inflation and global stability.

Gold is moving above the SMA50 and continues its upside trying to set new ATH, targeting 4,100.

Closest support levels: 4,050, 4,010 (close to the SMA50) 3,960

Closest resistance levels: 4,100, 4,140

WTI Crude Oil

Oil prices are modestly higher, buoyed by hopes of steady Chinese demand after the release of trade data. However, concerns about global growth and weak import figures keep gains in check. Supply remains stable for now.

WTI crude oil is trading below the SMA50. I expect it to reach the moving average today, but check for reversal signals now as the price moy plunge even lower from current levels.

Closest support levels: 59.20, 58.50, 57.90

Closest resistance levels: 59.60, 60.40, 61.30

Bitcoin

Bitcoin remains close to recent levels, unaffected by broader market volatility. The asset continues to attract long-term interest from institutional players, particularly as traditional data releases are paused.

Bitcoin is trading above the SMA50 on Monday and is likely to test the dynamic support in the near future. Check for reversal patterns or watch for a clear breakout.

Closest support levels: 112,400, 109,700

Closest resistance levels: 115,700, 120,400

Ethereum

Ethereum trades in line with Bitcoin, lacking major catalysts. Traders remain in wait-and-see mode, with broader sentiment and macro headlines likely to shape short-term moves.

ETH/USD is trading above the SMA50 and is likely to test the dynamic support in the upcoming hours. Once there, check for reversals or a clear breakout.

Closest support levels: 3,910, 3,680

Closest resistance levels: 4,200, 4,360