Markets are trading cautiously on Wednesday as investors process a mix of economic signals. In the U.S., focus remains on tentative inflation and manufacturing data, although the government shutdown continues to limit the release of comprehensive figures. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index has investors concerned about softening business conditions. Meanwhile, UK GDP is expected to show slight month-over-month growth, adding a mild positive note to the European outlook.

Oil is holding steady, weighed by weak demand expectations from Asia. Gold remains firm as investors seek safety in light of macro uncertainty and speculation around central bank easing. Equities are mixed across regions, responding to uneven data and cautious central bank commentary. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum remain rangebound, lacking a catalyst for breakout.

Key Data Releases to Watch Today

GBP GDP m/m: Previous: –0.1% | Forecast: 0.0%
AUD Employment Change: Previous: –11.9K | Forecast: 20.5K
AUD Unemployment Rate: Previous: 4.3% | Forecast: 4.3%
EUR Trade Balance: Previous: 6.3B | Forecast: 5.3B
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Previous: 23.2 | Forecast: 8.6
USD Crude Oil Inventories: Previous: 0.7M | Forecast: 3.7M

IMPORTANT NOTE: Some U.S. data remains tentative or delayed due to the government shutdown.

Central Bank Speakers Today

• • Federal Reserve: Christopher Waller, Stephen Miran, Michelle Bowman, Tom Barkin
  • European Central Bank: Philip R. Lane, Sharon Donnery, Pedro Machado
  • Reserve Bank of Australia: Christopher Kent
  • Bank of England: Sarah Breeden
  • Bank of Japan: Deputy Governor Uchida

EUR/USD

The euro is slightly firmer against the dollar following weak U.S. manufacturing data and a stronger-than-expected eurozone trade surplus. Direction remains unclear without stronger U.S. macro signals.

The currency pair reached new local highs on Wednesday, but reversed during the Asian session. It is moving towards the SMA50 where you can either check for reversal patterns or look for a breakout with confirmation.

Closest support levels: 1.1640, 1.1620, 1.1590

Closest resistance levels: 1.1670, 1.1720

Gold

Gold is supported by growing safe-haven demand amid ongoing geopolitical risk and uncertain monetary policy direction. Expectations for eventual easing continue to underpin prices.

Gold continues to move upwards seeting new ATHs almost every day. If it goes to the SMA50, here you can look for reversals or a clear confirmed breakout. If you read my blog, you know what to do in both cases.

Closest support levels: 4,200, 4,170

Closest ressitance levels: 4,250, 4,290

WTI Crude Oil

Oil is little changed. A smaller-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories helped limit losses, but demand concerns from Asia continue to weigh on sentiment.

Crude oil is making attempts to rise above the SMA50. Here are the key levels for today.

Closest support levels: 57.90, and 57,30

Closest resistance levels: 58.90, 59.70

Bitcoin

Bitcoin remains steady, showing limited volatility. Institutional support remains intact, but macro conditions offer little momentum for a breakout.

Bitcoin is moving below the SMA50. If the price moves to the dynamic resistance on the hourly chart, you should check for reversals or a clear confirmed breakout.

Closest support levels: 110,200, 108,600

Closest resistance levels: 111,800, 113,300, 115,800

Ethereum

Ethereum continues to trade sideways, mirroring Bitcoin’s behavior. Traders await either a broader risk shift or sector-specific news to drive action.

Ethereum is trading below the SMA50. Here are the closest levels to watch.

Closest support levels: 3,920, 3,850

Closest resistance levels: 4,040, 4,120, 4,180