Markets remain cautious on Friday as U.S. macro visibility continues to be limited by the ongoing government shutdown. Investors are focused on speeches from major central banks and the latest eurozone inflation data. Crude oil inventory numbers gave a modest surprise, while the IMF Meetings continue to attract policy headlines. Thin market volumes are expected heading into the weekend, with traders managing risk in the absence of clear directional signals.

Key Data Releases to Watch Today

• EUR Final Core CPI y/y: Previous: 2.3% | Forecast: 2.3%

• EUR Final CPI y/y: Previous: 2.2% | Forecast: 2.2%
• USD Crude Oil Inventories: Previous: 3.7M | Actual: 3.5M
• USD Federal Budget Balance: Previous: –344.8B | Actual: 198.0B | Forecast: 42.3B
• CAD Foreign Securities Purchases: Previous: 26.69B | Actual: 11.61B

IMPORTANT NOTE: Some U.S. data remains tentative or delayed due to the government shutdown.

Central Bank Speakers Today

• European Central Bank: Christine Lagarde, Joachim Nagel
• Bank of England: MPC Members Greene and Pill
• Federal Reserve: Miran, Kashkari
• Bank of Canada: Governor Macklem
• Global: Ongoing IMF Meetings

EUR/USD

The euro continues to consolidate above recent lows, supported by steady eurozone inflation readings and cautious Fed commentary. Volatility is subdued as traders await stronger U.S. data or a breakout in inflation trends.

EUR/USD is trading above the SMA50 and managed to set new local highs on Thursday. At the beginning of the European session, the currency pair may slide to the SMA50. If this happens, check for candlestick reversal patterns or a clear breakout.
Closest support levels: 1.1690, 1.1650, 1.1620

Closest resistance levels: 1.1710, 1.1760, 1.1820

Gold

Gold remains buoyant, backed by safe-haven flows amid global macro uncertainty and U.S. budget concerns. The metal continues pushing higher and may revisit recent highs if dollar weakness persists.

Gold continues to make gains due to political and geopolitical factors. It stays above the SMA50 on the hourly chart confirming the bullish pressure.

Closest support levels: 4,310, 4,250

Closest resistance levels: 4,370, 4,400

WTI Crude Oil

Oil prices are little changed, with inventory data coming in just below forecasts. However, demand softness and geopolitical caution continue to cap upside moves. Price is hovering near the SMA50.

WTI is making attempts to correct towards the SMA50 on the hourly chart after plunging on Thursday.

Closest support levels: 56.60, 55,50

Closest resistance levels: 57.70, 58.50

Bitcoin

Bitcoin remains rangebound, with low volatility and no clear macro drivers. The price continues to trade below the SMA50, and traders are watching for either a reversal or breakout confirmation.

Bitcoin plunged on Thursday and is trying to restore before the European session. I expect it to reach the SMA50 or close to it before further significant moves.

Closest support levels: 107,600, 105,200

Closest resistance levels: 110,600, 111,600

Ethereum

Ethereum follows Bitcoin’s lead, trading sideways below the SMA50. Markets are waiting for a broader risk shift or crypto-specific catalysts to prompt direction.

Ethereum plunged on Thursday below the SMA50 and is trying to restore moving to the SMA50. Once there, check for reversals or a clear breakout with confirmation.

Closest support levels: 3,850, 3,700

Closest resistance levels: 4,000, 4,180