Markets remained cautious on Tuesday as investors evaluated fresh economic data while weighing fiscal risks and central bank policy paths. The U.S. dollar stays under moderate pressure, reflecting investor uncertainty about growth prospects and monetary policy direction. Sentiment is mixed, with traders reacting to key inflation and labor market releases in Europe and the United States.

Key Data Releases to Watch Today

Below are some of the main economic releases listed for today (via ForexFactory) that could move markets, along with their most recent values:

• • German CPI m/m (EUR) — Previous: 0.1%, Forecast: 0.1%
  • U.S. CB Consumer Confidence (USD) — Previous: 97.4, Forecast: 95.3
  • U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (USD) — Previous: 7.18M, Forecast: 7.15M

These data points provide insight into inflation momentum in Germany and the euro area, while U.S. consumer confidence and labor market dynamics will shape expectations for household spending and employment strength. Together, they are likely to influence views on growth and central bank strategies.

EUR/USD

The euro is in focus today with German inflation data likely to drive sentiment. A stronger-than-expected print could reinforce expectations that the European Central Bank will need to remain cautious about easing policy, providing support to the euro. Conversely, weaker figures may confirm the disinflation trend and weigh on the currency, especially against the backdrop of global risk uncertainty.

EUR/USD is trading close to the SMA50 on the hourly chart with a bullish engulfing pattern just closed. Therefore, we have quite a nice chance to move higher from here and I’ve even placed a buy order, but I do not expect any serious movements before the European session and some data that I mentioned in the fundamental part comes into play. Today, the price shold pass above 1.1740 and then above 1.1760 to continue the upside. So keep an eye on these areas.

On the downside, check the SMA50 on the hourly chart. If EUR/USD breaks below this dynamic support with confirmation, it may move lower. But due to uncertainties about the US shutdown together with some comments from Fed’s officials about the possibility of further FOMC interest rate cuts, I would bet on the EUR/USD upside.

Gold

Gold continues to benefit from safe-haven flows amid concerns about sticky inflation and central bank uncertainty. With the U.S. dollar under pressure and fiscal risks still on the radar, investor interest in bullion remains resilient. Any disappointment in U.S. data, particularly consumer confidence or job openings, could further strengthen demand for gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty.

Gold continues its upside on the hourly chart. Yesterday, in my group I commented to one of users that I would buy from 3,820-3,830, what I did later and even bought from a correction close to 3,800. I closed one of my long positions already but one is still in play. Today I expect gold to continue its upside either directly or via a correction to the SMA50. If it goes to test the SMA50, I will check for reversal signals like hammer, inverted hammer or bullish engulfing there. In case of the SMA50 breakout (the less possible scenario), I will sell if the breakout is confirmed.

WTI Crude Oil

Oil markets are trading in a tight range as demand concerns compete with supply-side questions. Traders are watching U.S. labor and confidence figures closely for clues on energy consumption trends. Stronger demand indicators could provide support to crude, while signs of slowing household confidence or weaker job openings may highlight risks to fuel consumption, pressuring oil prices.

WTI lost its positions on Monday and is trading in a tight range at the moment of writing. Today we can see another downside leg right away or from the SMA50 if an upside correction occurs. WTI suffers from bad fundamentals and fears of global recession. The sell zone today is from 76.60-76.50 or from the SMA50 if a reversal signal like shooting star or hanging man occurs there.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin remains sensitive to broader risk sentiment and liquidity conditions. With inflation and labor market data in focus, any dovish implications for U.S. monetary policy could attract speculative flows into crypto. However, lingering uncertainty over global growth and regulation continues to limit upside momentum in digital assets.

Bitcoin surged yesterday and I managed to make some gains on it. Today we can start with a downside correction towards the SMA50 on the hourly chart. Check for reversal patterns there. In case of a breakout, I would look for sell entries.

Ethereum

Ethereum mirrors Bitcoin’s performance, lacking an independent catalyst of its own. Broader macroeconomic conditions and investor appetite for risk remain the key drivers. Shifts in U.S. data today could influence sentiment across the crypto market, with liquidity signals playing a central role in short-term direction.

Ethereum performed well yesterday bringing me some gains. Today, I expect ETH/USD to test the SMA50 first (or close to this area) and I will check for reversals. Remember that market sentiment is volatile and the breakout is also possible!